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a West Middlesex University
Hospital, Isleworth, b Nuffield Institute
for Health, Leeds University, c Royal
Aberdeen Children's Hospital, d Department of Epidemiology and Public Health,
Queen's University of Belfast, e Public
Health Medicine, Aberdeen
Correspondence to: Dr Jayanti J Rangasami, West Middlesex University Hospital, Twickenham Road, Isleworth, Middlesex TW7 OAF.
Accepted 30 May 1997
OBJECTIVES
To calculate the incidence of
type 1 diabetes in Scottish children aged less than 15 years between
1984 and 1993; to examine changes in incidence; and to calculate the
prevalence of diabetes at the end of this period.
DESIGNThree data sources were used to
construct the Scottish Study Group for the Care of Young Diabetics
register: active reporting of all new cases; reports from the Scottish
Morbidity Register 1; and local registers.
SUBJECTSAll children resident in Scotland
diagnosed with primary insulin dependent diabetes mellitus when less
than 15 years of age between 1984 and 1993.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURESAnnual incidence and
prevalence rate for Scotland; time trend in incidence over the 10 years; differences in incidence between the three different age groups;
and completeness of the register.
RESULTSThe average annual incidence for
Scotland was 23.9/100 000 children. The prevalence rate was 1.5/1000
in 1993. A total of 2326 cases was identified from the three sources.
Capture-recapture analysis suggests a case ascertainment of 98.6%. The
annual incidence rates increased at a rate of 2% each year (rate ratio = 1.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.03). The incidence was higher in boys than girls (rate ratio = 1.08, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.18), and the incidence rates increased with age: 15.3/100 000/year for age
0-4 years, 24.4/100 000/year for age 5-9 years, and
31.9/100 000/year for age 10-14 years.
CONCLUSIONSThe incidence of type 1 diabetes in Scotland is increasing and the prevalence is relatively
high. These findings have important implications for health service
resource allocation. The Scottish Study Group for the Care of Young
Diabetics' register provides a base for monitoring and research.
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